Amid the chaos and appalling human rights abuses faced by Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims today, it is worth remembering that this week, Myanmar’s government ought to have been considering how best to implement the recommendations of ex-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s Advisory Commission on Rakhine State. You can read my full article at The Global Post. The Global Post ‘How Militants Blew Chance To Improve Rights of Rohingya Muslims’
Here is my latest column for the New Straits Times about why Aung San Suu Kyi has remained silent about the circumstances of the Muslim Rohingya: Why Aung San Suu Kyi stays silent
Here is a link to my latest article. Published in the journal Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/AIExfyxdwswI6nJRRBAc/full#.U3yq8CyKCP8
ABSTRACT: In Myanmar (also known as Burma), the Rohingya are a persecuted Muslim minority living mainly in northern Rakhine State. Aung San Suu Kyi, the iconic leader of Myanmar’s opposition party the National League for Democracy (NLD), is championed as the voice of the people. However, on the matter of the Rohingya’s persecution she has been notably silent. This article examines the possible reasons for Suu Kyi’s silence and argues that Buddhist–Muslim political relations in Myanmar are central to understanding the reasons behind Suu Kyi’s position on the Rohingya. It is suggested that various factors, including the history of the Rohingya in Myanmar, the NLD’s attitude towards the Rohingya, Suu Kyi’s sense of obligation to her father’s political legacy, and Suu Kyi’s views on ethnicity, are creating a political environment in which Suu Kyi is presented with pragmatic political reasons for staying silent. Given Suu Kyi has the potential to become a future national leader, an understanding of her behaviours towards a sizeable persecuted Muslim minority is important. This is particularly the case when consideration is given to the contemporary pressures on Muslims to embrace radical politics and the implications this could have for Myanmar and the region.
Ireland uses proportional representation to elect members to Dáil Éireann, the national parliament and has done so for decades without the catastrophe predicted by opponents of PR like The Australian columnist Jenet Albrechtsen (article here) and without complaints like those of my local federal MP Kelvin Thompson who writes in his most recent electorate newsletter about the number of candidates contesting the 2012 Moreland Council elections as “confusing for voters” (you can read the Summer 2012 Wills Report here).
Proportional Representation gives parts of our community unlikely to gain political representation in single-member electorates the chance to play a formal role in our democracy. It means political interests that are single-issue, a little outside the mainstream or have struggled to gain voice within the big political parties can still aspire to be elected to local councils or Parliament.
PR’s opponents have tended to be critical of how this system reduces the threshold of votes required to elect a candidate and it has undoubtedly been good for smaller or newer parties like the Greens to have a chance of election to public office. Without PR it is likely Australia’s political system would more closely resemble that of the US where it is virtually impossible for new political movements to break into the elected political system.
Similarly, PR gives the community the chance to assess the qualities of new parties without the requirement of electing them in single-member electorates. Voters get to make judgements about whether to give them a greater say in future elections as they have with the Greens who now have a Deputy Leader representing a single-member electorate in Melbourne or consign them to the political waste basket as they did with Family First.
PR is an important safety value within our democracy making sure significantly sized and supported minority groups are not alienated from representative politics – it gives them a stake in the system and it removes the temptation to join existing political parties to internally pursue their single-issue agenda.
As MPs go, I have found Kelvin Thomson to be a pretty good local representative and have been delighted with his involvement with issues like the campaign against live animal exports, his interest in environment issues and the positive community role he played following the tragic death of Jill Meagher (giving credit where its deserved – Thomson’s work here was in cooperation with the local State MP Jane Garrett). But I disagree with his views about PR in Moreland Council.
Moreland Council is a fast changing part of Melbourne including the suburbs of Brunswick and Coburg and should actively encourage as many voices as possible to participate in elections. This doesn’t mean sitting Councillors will (or should) be changed but rather it allows more people to seriously participate in the council’s democratic process.
And if there’s anything Moreland Council has needed lately its new and different ideas. True, Moreland does some things very well, its Libraries for instance are excellent as are local parks, but the lengthy closure of the Brunswick swimming pool (it was closed when I moved here last summer and is still a building site) and regular news reports about failures of the Council to reliably separate recycling from other garbage doesn’t convince me the solution lies in limiting the number of candidates who think they might have a chance to be elected to Moreland Council.
And that’s what this change would be about – limiting the numbers of candidates contesting future council elections who believe they have a genuine chance of election and who consequently make a campaigning effort to match. There’s a huge difference for candidates between contesting council wards with four Councillors to be elected and wards who will elect just one – and this can be seen early in such campaigns where many candidates simply realise they have no chance to winning the single position up for grabs and curtail their campaigning, often leaving their issues to similarly quickly recede into the background.
From a party political perspective removing PR from Moreland Council is likely to have a sudden and dramatic influence on the Greens’ ability to gain local council representation. So for that reason at least I would expect the Greens to strongly oppose any such change, just as Labor could be expected to support it.
I’ve written before about Labor’s electoral strategy of chasing the support of Greens voters but this suggestion to change an electoral system goes a step further. It removes political structures that give the Greens a beach-head to build their party. Its smart but tough politics by Labor and could cripple the Greens in the longer-term by denying them local representation and all that comes with that including resources, profile and importantly the ability to train future state and federal candidates. It would also make it more difficult for the Greens to recover from any future electoral downturns which could turn a temporary electoral setback into a more permanent situation.
The Greens, from a party perspective, should be worried about attempts to remove proportional representation from Victoria’s councils but the broader community should be worried about the impact such changes could have on the vibrancy of Victorian local government elections – I see large council electoral fields as a positive sign for our democracy rather than a bothersome confusion.
The electoral commission is considering these matters so you can make comments about this or other aspects of Moreland Council’s elections by visiting the Victorian Electoral commission website here.
Today I read two articles arguing why Labor should not vigorously campaign to take votes from the Greens as we approach the federal election instead allowing both parties to focus attention on tackling the conservatives.
I’m not getting into whether the suggestions by Altman or Barry are worthwhile aspirations instead I want to address their key points in our current political climate – and I just don’t buy the core political arguments being made.
The first broad argument is laying off the Greens can deliver a better preference deal for Labor; the second argument, Labor should see the Greens as kindred-spirits and work more cooperatively to maximise the non-conservative vote.
Both suggestions would have been useful to the Greens and Labor at last federal election but the current political climate is very different.
The preference argument doesn’t stack up for me because Labor is in the box seat where Greens preferences are concerned. Federally, voters must indicate a preference and I just don’t see how the Greens could or would, in the current political climate, encourage their supporters to preference Liberal. This leaves the question of the Senate and I think here, based on recent polling trends, it will be the Greens most in need of Labor preferences. I’m not convinced Labor could easily be convinced to back off attempts to retake votes from the Greens in this climate – there just isn’t enough in it for them.
The higher your vote the better position your party will be in to negotiate a preference deal. Labor will simply campaign hard, taking as many votes from the Greens as possible and only then make a final decision about preferences.
The second argument is Labor should work more cooperatively with the Greens to maximise the non-conservative vote. Since Labor has already devised a strategy to begin retaking many of the votes they have lost to the Greens over the last three election cycles its hard to see why Labor would now see any political benefit for themselves in soft pedaling on the Greens.
It is time the Greens realised Labor is unlikely to do them any favours prior to the federal poll – you can argue all you want about whether it is in the long-term interests of both parties but the fact is Labor is going to be interested only in their own political health. And if you listen to Labor figures like Paul Howes the Greens could well be the focus of a good deal of Labor’s attacks.
This means the Greens need to work out why their vote is softening, realise Labor will not be doing them any favours and start thinking seriously about where the preferences needed to retain senate seats are likely to come from.
All the warning signs are there but the Greens need to acknowledge they are facing a significant weakening of their electoral support if they are to avoid a disastrous federal election.
Its not the only time recently a political party received a strong warning of impending political doom – how Queensland Labor responded (or didn’t) to a dreadful municipal by-election has important lessons for the Greens.
Labor achieved a vote of just 16% in the October 2010 by-election for Brisbane’s Walter Taylor ward. I know Walter Taylor ward well, it overlapped the state electorate I won for Labor on three occasions (2001, 2004, 2006) and at its most challenging could always deliver a Labor vote of 20% plus.
A primary vote of 16% should have sent shock waves through Queensland Labor as it prepared for a state election. Instead, Labor’s state secretary told the media, “I wouldn’t read too much into a council by-election”. At the state election Labor achieved a vote of just 18% in this area.
Statements like this send a clear message to candidates, campaigners and supporters. What could have been a wake up call for Labor was seemingly ignored. Now Queensland Labor holds 7 seats in a State Parliament of 89 MPs. The policy consequences of Labor’s collective hubris are plain to see and are particularly painful for public servants, the environment and the many worthy NGOs losing funding in Campbell Newman’s budget.
The Greens have been given a similar wake up call with significant opinion polling decline since the retirement of Bob Brown and the Parliamentary refugee debate. There are real election results to bear out the accuracy of the polling trends with poorer than expected outcomes from the Melbourne by-election (my analysis is here), the NT election and a big drop in support at NSW’s council elections.
The Greens should see this as an opportunity to examine just what is going wrong and why they are no longer connecting as positively with voters but judging by Greens’ reactions to these warning signs this doesn’t seem likely in the short term.
The Melbourne by-election loss was spun as ‘Melbourne goes Green’. Trouble is, it clearly didn’t. Poor polling is blamed on methodology, margin of error and voters not understanding policy positions. The point here is the polling IS down and there are real election results to confirm this.
Articles presenting an alternative, more positive view of the situation facing the Greens are circulated and tweeted furiously as though this is evidence everything is still really going swimmingly. While articles suggesting there really is a problem to address are being interpreted as untrustworthy attacks (sure, there has been some gloating in the conservative press about the Greens decline in support but to dismiss all such analysis as motivated by an anti-Greens philosophical position is just silly).
Just like Labor’s ‘we’re not reading much into it’ approach to an obviously approaching political catastrophy didn’t work for them, the Greens need to accept ignoring these strong warnings from voters will not work either.
One positive for the Greens is the continuing volatility in Australian politics which means they can still have a successful federal election. But addressing the problem requires the Greens to first accept they do in fact have a problem. The next task is fixing it quickly.
Tensions in western Burma appear to have cooled a little over the last week but this link to a story from Myanmar Times highlights the difficulties faced by moderates in the debate about the situation facing the Rohingya. Ko Nay Phone Latt is a brave young blogger who raised concerns about the the treatment of the Rohingya and since then has been the subject of some pretty nasty social media attacks.
Hanna Hindstrom also reports on Democratic Voice of Burma about three aid workers being handed jail sentences accused of inciting violence in the Arakan State. Naturally, since it is Burma stories do conflict but many are finding it increasingly difficult to believe anything the Burmese government says about the situation in the region. This point is highlighted by Human Rights Watch’s report ‘The Government Could Have Stopped This’ which you can read here.